Inductive Reasoning – Extrapolation

Inductive reasoning is the proess of making observations and drawing conclusions based on inference. When scanty data is available, extrapolation is used.

Extrapolation is projecting information from known data to draw a conclusion regarding the unknown. A bird watcher might make an inference using extrapolation:

• Tuesday morning I saw 8 goldfinches, 16 sparrows, and 2 bluebirds at the bird feeder.
• Wednesday morning I saw 4 goldfinches, 7 sparrows, and 1 bluebird.
• Thursday morning I saw 9 goldfinches, 12 sparrows and 1 bluebird.
  Therefore...
• The ratio of birds in my neighborhood could be represented - goldfinches : sparrows : bluebirds = 7 : 12 : 1

Let skepticism and common sense challenge this inference.

• One or more birds may have visited the feeder two or more times during the period of observation.
• Some birds may prefer to feed during the evening.
• Weather, nesting or migration could affect the number of birds using the birdfeeder.
• A cat could have been skulking around scaring the birds away.
• The feeder in the neighbor’s yard could be tastier.

Extrapolation is useful when it is impossible to test enough data to verify the conclusion. A dedicated scientist would need plenty of time and patience to count the bird population in a neighborhood with a high degree of accuracy.

Name some other times extrapolation would be necessary for drawing conclusions.

Building Self Esteem – Your Best Compliment

Of course, I always liked it when someone told me that I was pretty.  But I especially appreciated being told that I was smart!

What was the best compliment that you can remember receiving in your life?